FAQ: Analysis & Backtest

What is the Detailed Analysis page?

Answer: The Detailed Analysis page shows everything about a specific stock's seasonal pattern:

• Summary Card — probability, potential return, holding window
• Seasonality Chart — how the stock typically performs throughout the year
• Backtest Results — historical performance if you followed this pattern
• Year-by-Year Breakdown — see each year's actual performance

How do I read the seasonality chart?

Answer: The seasonality chart shows average price movement throughout the calendar year.

Key elements:

• X-axis: Months of the year (Jan-Dec)
• Y-axis: Average percentage change
• Highlighted area: The specific pattern window

What to look for:

• Consistent upward slopes = bullish seasonal tendency
• Consistent downward slopes = bearish seasonal tendency
• Flat areas = no clear seasonal pattern

What does the Backtest show?

Answer: The Backtest simulates what would have happened if you traded this pattern every year.

Key metrics:

Total Return: Overall profit/loss from all years
Win Rate: Percentage of profitable years
Max Drawdown: Worst peak-to-trough decline
Sharpe Ratio: Risk-adjusted return measure

Equity Curve: Shows how your account would have grown over time.

Trade List: Individual results for each year.

What years of data are used?

Answer: We use data from 2000 to present (20+ years).

Why start from 2000?

• Market structure changed significantly in late 1990s
• Electronic trading became dominant
• More relevant to modern market conditions

For indices: Some go back further (S&P 500 has 50+ years of data).

Can I change the backtest parameters?

Answer: Yes! You can adjust:

• Start Year / End Year — test specific time periods
• Initial Amount — starting capital for the simulation
• Direction — long (bullish) or short (bearish)

This helps you see how the pattern performed in different market conditions (bull markets, bear markets, etc.).

What is the difference between Probability and Win Rate?

Answer: They measure the same thing — the percentage of years with positive returns.

Probability = "85% odds" = "85% of years were profitable"

Win Rate = same calculation, different terminology

We use "Probability" and "Odds" in MarketOdds to match the betting/odds concept.

Why do some patterns have low sample size?

Answer: Sample size depends on:

• How long the stock has been trading
• Data availability for that market

Interpreting sample size:

20+ years = High confidence (statistically significant)
15-19 years = Good confidence
10-14 years = Moderate confidence
<10 years = Lower confidence (use with caution)

Tip: Filter for stocks with higher sample sizes for more reliable patterns.

Can I export the analysis data?

Answer: Currently, data export is not available.

We're considering adding this feature for Pro users in a future update.

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